In 2021, an unusual confluence of global events triggered a surge in commodity markets in recent months, but the trend was largely driven by growth in China, and a weaker US dollar, the currency used for most commodities trading, it could allow prices to rise even higher as demand grows.

The prices of raw materials, starting from the end of 2020, have undergone an increase never seen in recent years and in this early 2021 commodities rise in a very long list. Even wood has risen by 7% from October 2020 to today, while rubber has registered + 10%, wheat + 13%, corn even + 31%, copper + 26%, iron + 38% and oil + 53%.

But while the price of oil has not yet recovered to pre-crisis levels, the prices of some other commodities have risen much further, especially those of metals, putting European companies facing slower demand in difficulty. Historically, many commodity prices are highly correlated to oil prices, but in this case the dynamics of financial speculation or cartel maneuvers are also acting, as in logistics. Let's take the freight rates: a year ago renting a container cost an average of $ 1,500 and today the cost has reached 4,300 (+ 186%). In particular, China's tariffs to Europe increased by 142% in the same period and by 103% for routes to the Mediterranean through Suez. Nor is it easy to find containers.

The impact of these dynamics on Italian industry is certainly negative and puts the industrial sectors (mechanics and food in the first place) users of higher-cost commodities into difficulty. If we take the automotive supply chain as an example, we are at the center of a perfect storm: Production volumes are high but there are together with the high prices of commodities, the difficult availability and often low quality of supplies.

All this will impact with a differentiated but generalized increase in the prices of final goods and services.